[quote author=Ηεζεκιελ link=topic=10572.msg128931#msg128931 date=1296423268] [quote author=Abu Muqawama link=topic=10572.msg128883#msg128883 date=1296368197] You are correct in asserting that whatever form of government evolves in Egypt, if Mubarak is removed, will not be very pro-Western.
How about if El Baradei takes over? It appears that he came back to egypt not out of the blue but at the behest of the americans. The americans are never going to allow the formation of a government that is hostile to Israel. Now,elbaradie has worked with the US in the past and they know that he is their lackey and will continue to do so in the event he takes over an interim government. I am not sure, his arrival looks to me pure opportunism, not of someone who has the welfare of the country at heart ,but to take advantage of a looming crisis.The only thing that is going for him is that he won the noble prize for peace.
I think El Baradei would be a good political leader. I believe he is aware of the issues, at least from a policy and intellectual standpoint, of Egypt. Because he has spent so much time away from Egypt I am unsure how much support he would get from the Egyptian people. Who knows, they may look to him as a figurehead (at least in the major cities such as Cairo and Alexandria) and thus rally around him.
When I speak of the government as not being pro-Western, I mean so in comparison to the level of Mubarak's relationship to the U.S. Obviously Egyptians understand that the U.S. is an ally (although one who has helped to support an authoritarian regime) and the U.S. will adapt in such a way to keep on good terms with whatever government structure develops from here on out. Do I believe that the U.S. will try to make sure that a pro-American leader take office? Of course. Do I believe that they will assert this wish by any means necessary (cite the 1953 removal of Mossadegh in Iran)? No. I think they will try to help guide the Egyptian government towards a policy that both represents the people and yet is sympathetic to U.S. interests. Am I being a bit too optimistic? Perhaps.
As an academic and American I wish for the Egyptian people to be able to express their freedoms and if that means a democratic-type government based upon Islamic values, then fine. Who am I to try and subordinate the Egyptian people to my American and Western views of governance and democracy (although I do believe my understanding is correct). On the other hand as a Christian and as one inquiring into the Coptic Orthodox faith, I do not know what would be best for my brothers and sisters in Christ living in Egypt. I hope that a government forms wherein they will enjoy freedom of worship, freedom to establish houses of worship, equality in the eyes of the law, social equality and security of their lives and property.
As a Christian I am called to love others including Muslims. So I want my Muslim brothers in humanity in Egypt to be free from an oppressive government, yet I want my Christian brothers to be free from religious persecution.
I disagree with you abu Muqawama. I don't think el barad3i will be good at all. firstly, because he's spent so much time outside of egypt. he doesn't have a real connection with the people nor does he truley understand their plight. secondly, flying in during a revolution does make him seem very much like an opportunist. it's like hey look! they're getting rid of mubarak! this is my chance. we can also conclude that from what he's done for Egypt so far. He's supposedly a noble prize winner, but he's never done anything for the country. Compare him to Magdy yakoub(?), the coptic heart surgeon who after making tons of money abroad, goes to egypt and just does free heart surgeries on those who cant afford it. He also built heart institutions all over cairo from his own pocket. Egypt needs someone who's proven that they care about Egypt. El barad3i has failed to do so.
lastly he has way too much MB support in the protests. there's no way they'll support him this much and he won't give them what they want.
[quote author=epiphania link=topic=10572.msg128966#msg128966 date=1296430031] I disagree with you abu Muqawama. I don't think el barad3i will be good at all. firstly, because he's spent so much time outside of egypt. he doesn't have a real connection with the people nor does he truley understand their plight. secondly, flying in during a revolution does make him seem very much like an opportunist. it's like hey look! they're getting rid of mubarak! this is my chance. we can also conclude that from what he's done for Egypt so far. He's supposedly a noble prize winner, but he's never done anything for the country. Compare him to Magdy yakoub(?), the coptic heart surgeon who after making tons of money abroad, goes to egypt and just does free heart surgeries on those who cant afford it. He also built heart institutions all over cairo from his own pocket. Egypt needs someone who's proven that they care about Egypt. El barad3i has failed to do so.
lastly he has way too much MB support in the protests. there's no way they'll support him this much and he won't give them what they want.
If you would re-read what I posted you would see how I perceive El Badarei. He is a qualified politician; one does not achieve such success on an international level such as he without some capabilities. Note that I stated his understanding of Egypt is one of policy. I agree that he does not have a solidarity with the majority of the Egyptian people (except perhaps some intellectuals and academics) which is why I said "Because he has spent so much time away from Egypt I am unsure how much support he would get from the Egyptian people". Earlier I stated that I doubt the typical Egyptian living outside of the major cities could tell you much about him.
As a politician he is qualified; as one who is a representative of the Egyptian people, I do not see him as being a leader of grass-roots Egyptians. However, if for some reason El Baradei were to be placed in a position of power I do believe that he would be a capable leader, as regards policy and governmental issues. Whether or not he is a "man of the people" is obviously in dispute.
Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't El Baradei considering running in the 2011 elections PRIOR to the revolt?
Regarding the MB, whether we like it or not they will have a role in the government in Egypt. I do not necessarily support this but we cannot believe that the best leader to emerge is going to be one who supresses the MB because it will not happen. The one advantage that El Badarei has would be that he at least has an "ear to the West" and the West will try to persuade disassociation with a group such as the MB who they see as linked to Islamism and terrorism.
Again I hope that you read my thoughts as one who is a) not Egyptian and b) an average understanding of Egyptian politics. I am sure many of you have better insight into these events and I readily assert my ignorance in many areas.
[quote author=Ηεζεκιελ link=topic=10572.msg128925#msg128925 date=1296421483] [quote author=Mozes link=topic=10572.msg128856#msg128856 date=1296351517] The stock markets are going wild, I read, due to the turmoil in Egypt. Since when does Egypt matter in global world affairs? This got to be some kind of joke.
You have to think in terms of Geopolitics (not wealth or economic might), that is, the political policies in certain geographical area in the world. In this case, Egypt counts because it is located in an area where, if things go wrong, could have serious ramifications for the world.To get an idea,go back to history and think of the arab- israeli war and its impacts on the world economy in the 70's.As already has been identified,the Suez Canal is a vital route for arabian,persian gulf oil shipments.The Suez -Mediteranean Oil Pipeline runs from the gulf of suez in the red sea to Sidi kerir on the Mediteranean side . It serves as an alternative to the Suezcanal and transports around 1 million barrel of oil a day. Imagine what happens, if this oil flow or transport is suddenly disrupted!! In the event of political upheavals,oil speculators jump in and start to predict future oil prices.They just bet on it like gangsters.For example,they instill fear and insecurity by predicting that the conflict may spread to real oil producing countries such as Libya, Algeria and others.When this happens Oil producing countries take advantage of the situation and withhold their supplies in order to sell it at a later time when there is an actual increase in price.The effect is that there would be more demand of oil than actual supply in the market, driving the current prices higher. And that is exactly what is happening.Stocks are falling,cos those who invest in them choose to invest in secured assets such as Gold.They run away with their money from insecure markets ,causing the stocks to fall.In other words, Egypt may not be as rich and as powerful as germany or any other rich nation,but the fact that it is located in the right place (Israels neighbour) is an asset and power itself; a respected 'beggar' that counts, to use your terminology.
Thank you for clarifying the issues in an easy manner,hazkial. I understand it better now.
Some dude (retired Egy police) said so on BBC. I believe him.
Yes, because Mubarak is planning on having the army open fire on the Egyptian population...if the army listens to him, the Egyptian people are in trouble.
TITL, don't be deceived. Israel has enough on its plate to think about, and yes they supplied the weapons to Egypt because they wouldn't mind seeing the army kill its own people... where did you get the notion that the army are the good guys? Just because they are portrayed holding hands with protesters doesn't really prove that. When Mubarak orders they will obey, as simple as that Oujai
[quote author=Father Peter link=topic=10572.msg129080#msg129080 date=1296468426] Please don't start spreading all the anti-Jewish propaganda. Israel is NOT behind this unrest. It has been brewing for 30 years.
I agree - that that story has the smell of Egyptian anti-Semitism about it. This is the country where a sheikh on national TV very seriously argued that the sharks who attacked tourists in Sharm El Sheikh were sent by Israel ...
The next president of Egypt needs to be a friend of the United States of America. ElBaradei is just that. He is not anti-American either. His life outside of Egypt is more valuable to Egypt than if he grew inside of Egypt.
Let's face it, all of us who are Coptic who were raised outside of Egypt have one thing in common: We are not afraid to think for ourselves, nor are we afraid to criticise. Democracy is in our blood.
We cannot start jumping to conclusions saying to ourselves that he is an opportunist, or that he is loves/doesn't love Egypt. How do you know???
Finally, if we are going to have a democracy in Egypt, unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood cannot be outlawed. Outlawing them or suppressing their voices will only lead to violence. On the contrary, they need to be represented. The same with Coptic Christians.
You cannot go off and dismiss ElBaradei simply because the MB have chosen him as their spokesperson. That's a positive, not a negative sign. I'd be worried if they represented themselves.
The Egyptian people, the majority of them, WANT a secular Egypt. That's what ElBaradei wants.
To make it secular and peaceful, you need to include all Egyptians, and find commonality between all the different groups in Egypt.
Right now, Egypt doesn't need a heart surgeon. It needs a leader who is fair and can unite the country.
I'm not saying that ElBaradei is the correct choice!!
All I'm saying is that your logic for rejecting him is based on illogical principles that are misleading.
allow me to build on some of your arguments and offer a somewhat alternative political view.
The next president of Egypt needs to be a friend of the United States of America.
..... to protect their interests and act as their secretary, not the president of a country.
This is a legitimate political concern on the side of the US, but not necessarily a popular demand in Egypt. Egyptians, 80% or more muslims, hate the United States and the West. To manage this conflict, the islamic brotherhood stands as forerunners and as master of the game to inherit this complicated scene. They have been supported by the US and the West for a long time, for pure pragmatic reasons on both sides, and can control the street by expressing hate in public while receiving support and protecting the interests of the West privately.
Those who suffer will be the Copts without questions. The West has never cared about Copts, it is unlikely that the Islamic Brotherhood will stop at anything but a "total solution" (Third Reich approach to the Jews) for the Copts once they are in power.
ElBaradei is just that. He is not anti-American either. His life outside of Egypt is more valuable to Egypt than if he grew inside of Egypt.
EL Baradei is a no one in terms of internal political experience. The two years he lived in Egypt he has not put forth an agenda on what his priorities are nor what is his political program. He has been pressed to do so and he has not gained the trust of the learnt egyptians, although he had a polished start. It is not enough to say that I want change, but the major question is: change to what? At times, the man flirted with the Islamic brotherhood to gain power and their divine blessings.
Compare the man to Tarek Heggi or Refaat El Said, and you will notice the difference.
One other thing: If it so happens and the revolution succeeds, the newly emerging leaders will be the islamic brotherhood who will claim the revolution for itself and any other leaders who have been on the ground or supported the revolution in a way or another. El Baradei is not one of those and he is not popular with the small secular movements like "Kefaya".
It is also wise for the church leaders not to take sides in this affair.
We cannot start jumping to conclusions saying to ourselves that he is an opportunist, or that he is loves/doesn't love Egypt. How do you know???
Does not really matter. Personal evaluation of a candidate outside of sphere of moral integrity is not relevant.
Let's face it, all of us who are Coptic who were raised outside of Egypt have one thing in common: We are not afraid to think for ourselves, nor are we afraid to criticise. Democracy is in our blood.
Democracy is not an absolute value. It is a tool that could be used in either way: Build the society or destroy it. It has proven its efficiency in the West because it is a home grown product, in line with the values of the society and based on historical premises, but these premises are totally absent in the Arab World.
You are absolutely right that Copts outside of Egypt, by virtue of of belonging to a democratic state, exercise democracy and understand it. But democracy is not just a "mechanical" system that involves free elections and freedom to demonstrate. These are just the functional tools of expression for a democratic system. Successful democractic systems involves acceptance of the other and willingness to subject yourself to a majority approved laws even if it contradicts your interests. It involves most and foremost a love for the country. When such values are absent, and they are absent among the majority of muslims in Egypt, you have a body without the heart. You have the frame without the painting.
Finally, if we are going to have a democracy in Egypt, unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood cannot be outlawed. Outlawing them or suppressing their voices will only lead to violence. On the contrary, they need to be represented. The same with Coptic Christians.
If we have a "democracy" in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will not only be represented, they will sweep the elections. You will have your first 90% "democratic" results in favor of a group or candidate, and it will not even be rigged.
The same with Coptic Christians
In "democratic" Egypt, they will be bombed. It will be a worse experience than "democratic Iraq".
The US, and the West in general, have ZERO understanding of the dynamics of the egyptian street and of the psychology, social making and priorities of the egyptian nation. They repeat mistakes with ...diligence.
The Egyptian people, the majority of them, WANT a secular Egypt.
Islamic Egypt rather.
Right now, Egypt doesn't need a heart surgeon. It needs a leader who is fair and can unite the country.
Omar Soliman, the newly appointed VP, is such a man.
The demonstrations, fueled by islamic brotherhood and the "analysts" on CNN, FOX and Jazeera, are either stupid or ideologically motivated to represent him with negativity.
The islamic brotherhood are very organized, strongly represented in army and in the police, extremely popular and have the weapons to engage in street fights that they are very skilled in.
They have a fundamental interest in blocking a peaceful transition of power to Omar Soliman. They seek a total state of anarchy in the country. They will emerge victors and on top. They will not allow the mistake of 1981 to happen again, when the unlikely assassination of Sadat created a political void that they did not properly exploit nor did they expect. They have been growing very slowly for almost a century now and they are ready to take over. They will not stand in the shadows again.
where did you get the notion that the army are the good guys? Just because they are portrayed holding hands with protesters doesn't really prove that. When Mubarak orders they will obey, as simple as that
True, if Mubarak is still the popular chief in command. It seems he is not anymore or that there is some division in the army ranks. The appointment of Omar Soliman as VP was understood to allow him control over the army again and over the police as well after the apparent treason by the minister of Interior, Habib El Adly.
The formation of the army units on the streets are suspecious. You do not control the street with tanks but with foot soldiers who engage in fights.
Israel has enough on its plate to think about, and yes they supplied the weapons to Egypt because they wouldn't mind seeing the army kill its own people
Egyptian army are well equipped and they do not need Israeli weapons. It seems like a piece of El- Jezeera news, aimed at depicting Mubarak as a traitor. I think Israel's involvement in these affairs is minimal.
The Muslim Brotherhood has nothing to do with the Iranian movement, has nothing to do with extremism as we have seen it in Afghanistan and other places
[quote author=Stavro link=topic=10572.msg129102#msg129102 date=1296494559] Dear All,
allow me to build on some of your arguments and offer a somewhat alternative political view.
The next president of Egypt needs to be a friend of the United States of America.
..... to protect their interests and act as their secretary, not the president of a country.
This is a legitimate political concern on the side of the US, but not necessarily a popular demand in Egypt. Egyptians, 80% or more muslims, hate the United States and the West. To manage this conflict, the islamic brotherhood stands as forerunners and as master of the game to inherit this complicated scene. They have been supported by the US and the West for a long time, for pure pragmatic reasons on both sides, and can control the street by expressing hate in public while receiving support and protecting the interests of the West privately.
Those who suffer will be the Copts without questions. The West has never cared about Copts, it is unlikely that the Islamic Brotherhood will stop at anything but a "total solution" (Third Reich approach to the Jews) for the Copts once they are in power.
ElBaradei is just that. He is not anti-American either. His life outside of Egypt is more valuable to Egypt than if he grew inside of Egypt.
EL Baradei is a no one in terms of internal political experience. The two years he lived in Egypt he has not put forth an agenda on what his priorities are nor what is his political program. He has been pressed to do so and he has not gained the trust of the learnt egyptians, although he had a polished start. It is not enough to say that I want change, but the major question is: change to what? At times, the man flirted with the Islamic brotherhood to gain power and their divine blessings.
Compare the man to Tarek Heggi or Refaat El Said, and you will notice the difference.
One other thing: If it so happens and the revolution succeeds, the newly emerging leaders will be the islamic brotherhood who will claim the revolution for itself and any other leaders who have been on the ground or supported the revolution in a way or another. El Baradei is not one of those and he is not popular with the small secular movements like "Kefaya".
It is also wise for the church leaders not to take sides in this affair.
We cannot start jumping to conclusions saying to ourselves that he is an opportunist, or that he is loves/doesn't love Egypt. How do you know???
Does not really matter. Personal evaluation of a candidate outside of sphere of moral integrity is not relevant.
Let's face it, all of us who are Coptic who were raised outside of Egypt have one thing in common: We are not afraid to think for ourselves, nor are we afraid to criticise. Democracy is in our blood.
Democracy is not an absolute value. It is a tool that could be used in either way: Build the society or destroy it. It has proven its efficiency in the West because it is a home grown product, in line with the values of the society and based on historical premises, but these premises are totally absent in the Arab World.
You are absolutely right that Copts outside of Egypt, by virtue of of belonging to a democratic state, exercise democracy and understand it. But democracy is not just a "mechanical" system that involves free elections and freedom to demonstrate. These are just the functional tools of expression for a democratic system. Successful democractic systems involves acceptance of the other and willingness to subject yourself to a majority approved laws even if it contradicts your interests. It involves most and foremost a love for the country. When such values are absent, and they are absent among the majority of muslims in Egypt, you have a body without the heart. You have the frame without the painting.
Finally, if we are going to have a democracy in Egypt, unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood cannot be outlawed. Outlawing them or suppressing their voices will only lead to violence. On the contrary, they need to be represented. The same with Coptic Christians.
If we have a "democracy" in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will not only be represented, they will sweep the elections. You will have your first 90% "democratic" results in favor of a group or candidate, and it will not even be rigged.
The same with Coptic Christians
In "democratic" Egypt, they will be bombed. It will be a worse experience than "democratic Iraq".
The US, and the West in general, have ZERO understanding of the dynamics of the egyptian street and of the psychology, social making and priorities of the egyptian nation. They repeat mistakes with ...diligence.
The Egyptian people, the majority of them, WANT a secular Egypt.
Islamic Egypt rather.
Right now, Egypt doesn't need a heart surgeon. It needs a leader who is fair and can unite the country.
Omar Soliman, the newly appointed VP, is such a man.
The demonstrations, fueled by islamic brotherhood and the "analysts" on CNN, FOX and Jazeera, are either stupid or ideologically motivated to represent him with negativity.
The islamic brotherhood are very organized, strongly represented in army and in the police, extremely popular and have the weapons to engage in street fights that they are very skilled in.
They have a fundamental interest in blocking a peaceful transition of power to Omar Soliman. They seek a total state of anarchy in the country. They will emerge victors and on top. They will not allow the mistake of 1981 to happen again, when the unlikely assassination of Sadat created a political void that they did not properly exploit nor did they expect. They have been growing very slowly for almost a century now and they are ready to take over. They will not stand in the shadows again.
where did you get the notion that the army are the good guys? Just because they are portrayed holding hands with protesters doesn't really prove that. When Mubarak orders they will obey, as simple as that
True, if Mubarak is still the popular chief in command. It seems he is not anymore or that there is some division in the army ranks. The appointment of Omar Soliman as VP was understood to allow him control over the army again and over the police as well after the apparent treason by the minister of Interior, Habib El Adly.
The formation of the army units on the streets are suspecious. You do not control the street with tanks but with foot soldiers who engage in fights.
Israel has enough on its plate to think about, and yes they supplied the weapons to Egypt because they wouldn't mind seeing the army kill its own people
Egyptian army are well equipped and they do not need Israeli weapons. It seems like a piece of El- Jezeera news, aimed at depicting Mubarak as a traitor. I think Israel's involvement in these affairs is minimal.
Hi Stavro,
I'm really interested to know how you feel about this. Do you feel that the average muslim Egyptians wants an Islamic State?
I did not get this impression. On the contrary, they want a secular state (as far as I can see), and from the interviews i've been listening to.
I'm not saying Copts should support ElBaradei.. not at all.. but let's put it this way. If he (or whoever is elected) is a friend of the USA, that makes them a friend of Israel, and that makes them NOT the Muslim Brotherhood.
[quote author=Stavro link=topic=10572.msg129102#msg129102 date=1296494559] Dear All,
allow me to build on some of your arguments and offer a somewhat alternative political view.
The next president of Egypt needs to be a friend of the United States of America.
..... to protect their interests and act as their secretary, not the president of a country.
This is a legitimate political concern on the side of the US, but not necessarily a popular demand in Egypt. Egyptians, 80% or more muslims, hate the United States and the West. To manage this conflict, the islamic brotherhood stands as forerunners and as master of the game to inherit this complicated scene. They have been supported by the US and the West for a long time, for pure pragmatic reasons on both sides, and can control the street by expressing hate in public while receiving support and protecting the interests of the West privately.
Those who suffer will be the Copts without questions. The West has never cared about Copts, it is unlikely that the Islamic Brotherhood will stop at anything but a "total solution" (Third Reich approach to the Jews) for the Copts once they are in power.
ElBaradei is just that. He is not anti-American either. His life outside of Egypt is more valuable to Egypt than if he grew inside of Egypt.
EL Baradei is a no one in terms of internal political experience. The two years he lived in Egypt he has not put forth an agenda on what his priorities are nor what is his political program. He has been pressed to do so and he has not gained the trust of the learnt egyptians, although he had a polished start. It is not enough to say that I want change, but the major question is: change to what? At times, the man flirted with the Islamic brotherhood to gain power and their divine blessings.
Compare the man to Tarek Heggi or Refaat El Said, and you will notice the difference.
One other thing: If it so happens and the revolution succeeds, the newly emerging leaders will be the islamic brotherhood who will claim the revolution for itself and any other leaders who have been on the ground or supported the revolution in a way or another. El Baradei is not one of those and he is not popular with the small secular movements like "Kefaya".
It is also wise for the church leaders not to take sides in this affair.
We cannot start jumping to conclusions saying to ourselves that he is an opportunist, or that he is loves/doesn't love Egypt. How do you know???
Does not really matter. Personal evaluation of a candidate outside of sphere of moral integrity is not relevant.
Let's face it, all of us who are Coptic who were raised outside of Egypt have one thing in common: We are not afraid to think for ourselves, nor are we afraid to criticise. Democracy is in our blood.
Democracy is not an absolute value. It is a tool that could be used in either way: Build the society or destroy it. It has proven its efficiency in the West because it is a home grown product, in line with the values of the society and based on historical premises, but these premises are totally absent in the Arab World.
You are absolutely right that Copts outside of Egypt, by virtue of of belonging to a democratic state, exercise democracy and understand it. But democracy is not just a "mechanical" system that involves free elections and freedom to demonstrate. These are just the functional tools of expression for a democratic system. Successful democractic systems involves acceptance of the other and willingness to subject yourself to a majority approved laws even if it contradicts your interests. It involves most and foremost a love for the country. When such values are absent, and they are absent among the majority of muslims in Egypt, you have a body without the heart. You have the frame without the painting.
Finally, if we are going to have a democracy in Egypt, unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood cannot be outlawed. Outlawing them or suppressing their voices will only lead to violence. On the contrary, they need to be represented. The same with Coptic Christians.
If we have a "democracy" in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will not only be represented, they will sweep the elections. You will have your first 90% "democratic" results in favor of a group or candidate, and it will not even be rigged.
The same with Coptic Christians
In "democratic" Egypt, they will be bombed. It will be a worse experience than "democratic Iraq".
The US, and the West in general, have ZERO understanding of the dynamics of the egyptian street and of the psychology, social making and priorities of the egyptian nation. They repeat mistakes with ...diligence.
The Egyptian people, the majority of them, WANT a secular Egypt.
Islamic Egypt rather.
Right now, Egypt doesn't need a heart surgeon. It needs a leader who is fair and can unite the country.
Omar Soliman, the newly appointed VP, is such a man.
The demonstrations, fueled by islamic brotherhood and the "analysts" on CNN, FOX and Jazeera, are either stupid or ideologically motivated to represent him with negativity.
The islamic brotherhood are very organized, strongly represented in army and in the police, extremely popular and have the weapons to engage in street fights that they are very skilled in.
They have a fundamental interest in blocking a peaceful transition of power to Omar Soliman. They seek a total state of anarchy in the country. They will emerge victors and on top. They will not allow the mistake of 1981 to happen again, when the unlikely assassination of Sadat created a political void that they did not properly exploit nor did they expect. They have been growing very slowly for almost a century now and they are ready to take over. They will not stand in the shadows again.
where did you get the notion that the army are the good guys? Just because they are portrayed holding hands with protesters doesn't really prove that. When Mubarak orders they will obey, as simple as that
True, if Mubarak is still the popular chief in command. It seems he is not anymore or that there is some division in the army ranks. The appointment of Omar Soliman as VP was understood to allow him control over the army again and over the police as well after the apparent treason by the minister of Interior, Habib El Adly.
The formation of the army units on the streets are suspecious. You do not control the street with tanks but with foot soldiers who engage in fights.
Israel has enough on its plate to think about, and yes they supplied the weapons to Egypt because they wouldn't mind seeing the army kill its own people
Egyptian army are well equipped and they do not need Israeli weapons. It seems like a piece of El- Jezeera news, aimed at depicting Mubarak as a traitor. I think Israel's involvement in these affairs is minimal.
Comments
Oujai
[quote author=Abu Muqawama link=topic=10572.msg128883#msg128883 date=1296368197]
You are correct in asserting that whatever form of government evolves in Egypt, if Mubarak is removed, will not be very pro-Western.
How about if El Baradei takes over? It appears that he came back to egypt not out of the blue but at the behest of the americans. The americans are never going to allow the formation of a government that is hostile to Israel. Now,elbaradie has worked with the US in the past and they know that he is their lackey and will continue to do so in the event he takes over an interim government. I am not sure, his arrival looks to me pure opportunism, not of someone who has the welfare of the country at heart ,but to take advantage of a looming crisis.The only thing that is going for him is that he won the noble prize for peace.
I think El Baradei would be a good political leader. I believe he is aware of the issues, at least from a policy and intellectual standpoint, of Egypt. Because he has spent so much time away from Egypt I am unsure how much support he would get from the Egyptian people. Who knows, they may look to him as a figurehead (at least in the major cities such as Cairo and Alexandria) and thus rally around him.
When I speak of the government as not being pro-Western, I mean so in comparison to the level of Mubarak's relationship to the U.S. Obviously Egyptians understand that the U.S. is an ally (although one who has helped to support an authoritarian regime) and the U.S. will adapt in such a way to keep on good terms with whatever government structure develops from here on out. Do I believe that the U.S. will try to make sure that a pro-American leader take office? Of course. Do I believe that they will assert this wish by any means necessary (cite the 1953 removal of Mossadegh in Iran)? No. I think they will try to help guide the Egyptian government towards a policy that both represents the people and yet is sympathetic to U.S. interests. Am I being a bit too optimistic? Perhaps.
As an academic and American I wish for the Egyptian people to be able to express their freedoms and if that means a democratic-type government based upon Islamic values, then fine. Who am I to try and subordinate the Egyptian people to my American and Western views of governance and democracy (although I do believe my understanding is correct). On the other hand as a Christian and as one inquiring into the Coptic Orthodox faith, I do not know what would be best for my brothers and sisters in Christ living in Egypt. I hope that a government forms wherein they will enjoy freedom of worship, freedom to establish houses of worship, equality in the eyes of the law, social equality and security of their lives and property.
As a Christian I am called to love others including Muslims. So I want my Muslim brothers in humanity in Egypt to be free from an oppressive government, yet I want my Christian brothers to be free from religious persecution.
lastly he has way too much MB support in the protests. there's no way they'll support him this much and he won't give them what they want.
I disagree with you abu Muqawama. I don't think el barad3i will be good at all. firstly, because he's spent so much time outside of egypt. he doesn't have a real connection with the people nor does he truley understand their plight. secondly, flying in during a revolution does make him seem very much like an opportunist. it's like hey look! they're getting rid of mubarak! this is my chance. we can also conclude that from what he's done for Egypt so far. He's supposedly a noble prize winner, but he's never done anything for the country. Compare him to Magdy yakoub(?), the coptic heart surgeon who after making tons of money abroad, goes to egypt and just does free heart surgeries on those who cant afford it. He also built heart institutions all over cairo from his own pocket. Egypt needs someone who's proven that they care about Egypt. El barad3i has failed to do so.
lastly he has way too much MB support in the protests. there's no way they'll support him this much and he won't give them what they want.
If you would re-read what I posted you would see how I perceive El Badarei. He is a qualified politician; one does not achieve such success on an international level such as he without some capabilities. Note that I stated his understanding of Egypt is one of policy. I agree that he does not have a solidarity with the majority of the Egyptian people (except perhaps some intellectuals and academics) which is why I said "Because he has spent so much time away from Egypt I am unsure how much support he would get from the Egyptian people". Earlier I stated that I doubt the typical Egyptian living outside of the major cities could tell you much about him.
As a politician he is qualified; as one who is a representative of the Egyptian people, I do not see him as being a leader of grass-roots Egyptians. However, if for some reason El Baradei were to be placed in a position of power I do believe that he would be a capable leader, as regards policy and governmental issues. Whether or not he is a "man of the people" is obviously in dispute.
Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't El Baradei considering running in the 2011 elections PRIOR to the revolt?
Regarding the MB, whether we like it or not they will have a role in the government in Egypt. I do not necessarily support this but we cannot believe that the best leader to emerge is going to be one who supresses the MB because it will not happen. The one advantage that El Badarei has would be that he at least has an "ear to the West" and the West will try to persuade disassociation with a group such as the MB who they see as linked to Islamism and terrorism.
Again I hope that you read my thoughts as one who is a) not Egyptian and b) an average understanding of Egyptian politics. I am sure many of you have better insight into these events and I readily assert my ignorance in many areas.
Blessings to you my dear sister :)
This week is all fasting (sorry for being redundant.. I haven't read the posts).
In approximately 48 hours everyone is going to die, apparently.
umm...what makes you say that?
[quote author=Mozes link=topic=10572.msg128856#msg128856 date=1296351517]
The stock markets are going wild, I read, due to the turmoil in Egypt. Since when does Egypt matter in global world affairs? This got to be some kind of joke.
You have to think in terms of Geopolitics (not wealth or economic might), that is, the political policies in certain geographical area in the world. In this case, Egypt counts because it is located in an area where, if things go wrong, could have serious ramifications for the world.To get an idea,go back to history and think of the arab- israeli war and its impacts on the world economy in the 70's.As already has been identified,the Suez Canal is a vital route for arabian,persian gulf oil shipments.The Suez -Mediteranean Oil Pipeline runs from the gulf of suez in the red sea to Sidi kerir on the Mediteranean side . It serves as an alternative to the Suezcanal and transports around 1 million barrel of oil a day. Imagine what happens, if this oil flow or transport is suddenly disrupted!! In the event of political upheavals,oil speculators jump in and start to predict future oil prices.They just bet on it like gangsters.For example,they instill fear and insecurity by predicting that the conflict may spread to real oil producing countries such as Libya, Algeria and others.When this happens Oil producing countries take advantage of the situation and withhold their supplies in order to sell it at a later time when there is an actual increase in price.The effect is that there would be more demand of oil than actual supply in the market, driving the current prices higher. And that is exactly what is happening.Stocks are falling,cos those who invest in them choose to invest in secured assets such as Gold.They run away with their money from insecure markets ,causing the stocks to fall.In other words, Egypt may not be as rich and as powerful as germany or any other rich nation,but the fact that it is located in the right place (Israels neighbour) is an asset and power itself; a respected 'beggar' that counts, to use your terminology.
Thank you for clarifying the issues in an easy manner,hazkial. I understand it better now.
Some dude (retired Egy police) said so on BBC. I believe him.
epiphania,
Some dude (retired Egy police) said so on BBC. I believe him.
Yes, because Mubarak is planning on having the army open fire on the Egyptian population...if the army listens to him, the Egyptian people are in trouble.
Theyre getting weapons from Israel and men on rooftops to shoot the Egyptians (200 was the number I heard).. in 48 hours. Either police or Israelis.
Don't forget that we attacked Israel during their day of madness. Now is their chance to do it to us.
Not the army. Army are the good guys.
Theyre getting weapons from Israel and men on rooftops to shoot the Egyptians (200 was the number I heard).. in 48 hours. Either police or Israelis.
Don't forget that we attacked Israel during their day of madness. Now is their chance to do it to us.
Yes, while people think the army is good, it's still under the control of Mubarak. No one knows yet where their loyalties lie.
Oujai
Please don't start spreading all the anti-Jewish propaganda. Israel is NOT behind this unrest. It has been brewing for 30 years.
I agree - that that story has the smell of Egyptian anti-Semitism about it. This is the country where a sheikh on national TV very seriously argued that the sharks who attacked tourists in Sharm El Sheikh were sent by Israel ...
The next president of Egypt needs to be a friend of the United States of America. ElBaradei is just that. He is not anti-American either. His life outside of Egypt is more valuable to Egypt than if he grew inside of Egypt.
Let's face it, all of us who are Coptic who were raised outside of Egypt have one thing in common: We are not afraid to think for ourselves, nor are we afraid to criticise. Democracy is in our blood.
We cannot start jumping to conclusions saying to ourselves that he is an opportunist, or that he is loves/doesn't love Egypt. How do you know???
Finally, if we are going to have a democracy in Egypt, unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood cannot be outlawed. Outlawing them or suppressing their voices will only lead to violence. On the contrary, they need to be represented. The same with Coptic Christians.
You cannot go off and dismiss ElBaradei simply because the MB have chosen him as their spokesperson. That's a positive, not a negative sign. I'd be worried if they represented themselves.
The Egyptian people, the majority of them, WANT a secular Egypt. That's what ElBaradei wants.
To make it secular and peaceful, you need to include all Egyptians, and find commonality between all the different groups in Egypt.
Right now, Egypt doesn't need a heart surgeon. It needs a leader who is fair and can unite the country.
I'm not saying that ElBaradei is the correct choice!!
All I'm saying is that your logic for rejecting him is based on illogical principles that are misleading.
allow me to build on some of your arguments and offer a somewhat alternative political view. ..... to protect their interests and act as their secretary, not the president of a country.
This is a legitimate political concern on the side of the US, but not necessarily a popular demand in Egypt. Egyptians, 80% or more muslims, hate the United States and the West. To manage this conflict, the islamic brotherhood stands as forerunners and as master of the game to inherit this complicated scene. They have been supported by the US and the West for a long time, for pure pragmatic reasons on both sides, and can control the street by expressing hate in public while receiving support and protecting the interests of the West privately.
Those who suffer will be the Copts without questions. The West has never cared about Copts, it is unlikely that the Islamic Brotherhood will stop at anything but a "total solution" (Third Reich approach to the Jews) for the Copts once they are in power. EL Baradei is a no one in terms of internal political experience. The two years he lived in Egypt he has not put forth an agenda on what his priorities are nor what is his political program. He has been pressed to do so and he has not gained the trust of the learnt egyptians, although he had a polished start. It is not enough to say that I want change, but the major question is: change to what? At times, the man flirted with the Islamic brotherhood to gain power and their divine blessings.
Compare the man to Tarek Heggi or Refaat El Said, and you will notice the difference.
One other thing: If it so happens and the revolution succeeds, the newly emerging leaders will be the islamic brotherhood who will claim the revolution for itself and any other leaders who have been on the ground or supported the revolution in a way or another. El Baradei is not one of those and he is not popular with the small secular movements like "Kefaya".
It is also wise for the church leaders not to take sides in this affair. Does not really matter. Personal evaluation of a candidate outside of sphere of moral integrity is not relevant.
Democracy is not an absolute value. It is a tool that could be used in either way: Build the society or destroy it. It has proven its efficiency in the West because it is a home grown product, in line with the values of the society and based on historical premises, but these premises are totally absent in the Arab World.
You are absolutely right that Copts outside of Egypt, by virtue of of belonging to a democratic state, exercise democracy and understand it. But democracy is not just a "mechanical" system that involves free elections and freedom to demonstrate. These are just the functional tools of expression for a democratic system. Successful democractic systems involves acceptance of the other and willingness to subject yourself to a majority approved laws even if it contradicts your interests. It involves most and foremost a love for the country. When such values are absent, and they are absent among the majority of muslims in Egypt, you have a body without the heart. You have the frame without the painting. If we have a "democracy" in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will not only be represented, they will sweep the elections. You will have your first 90% "democratic" results in favor of a group or candidate, and it will not even be rigged. In "democratic" Egypt, they will be bombed. It will be a worse experience than "democratic Iraq".
The US, and the West in general, have ZERO understanding of the dynamics of the egyptian street and of the psychology, social making and priorities of the egyptian nation. They repeat mistakes with ...diligence. Islamic Egypt rather. Omar Soliman, the newly appointed VP, is such a man.
The demonstrations, fueled by islamic brotherhood and the "analysts" on CNN, FOX and Jazeera, are either stupid or ideologically motivated to represent him with negativity.
The islamic brotherhood are very organized, strongly represented in army and in the police, extremely popular and have the weapons to engage in street fights that they are very skilled in.
They have a fundamental interest in blocking a peaceful transition of power to Omar Soliman. They seek a total state of anarchy in the country. They will emerge victors and on top. They will not allow the mistake of 1981 to happen again, when the unlikely assassination of Sadat created a political void that they did not properly exploit nor did they expect. They have been growing very slowly for almost a century now and they are ready to take over. They will not stand in the shadows again. True, if Mubarak is still the popular chief in command. It seems he is not anymore or that there is some division in the army ranks. The appointment of Omar Soliman as VP was understood to allow him control over the army again and over the police as well after the apparent treason by the minister of Interior, Habib El Adly.
The formation of the army units on the streets are suspecious. You do not control the street with tanks but with foot soldiers who engage in fights. Egyptian army are well equipped and they do not need Israeli weapons. It seems like a piece of El- Jezeera news, aimed at depicting Mubarak as a traitor. I think Israel's involvement in these affairs is minimal.
The Muslim Brotherhood has nothing to do with the Iranian movement, has nothing to do with extremism as we have seen it in Afghanistan and other places
He is either paid or stupid.
Copts should not support this man.
It's driving me nuts.
Dear All,
allow me to build on some of your arguments and offer a somewhat alternative political view. ..... to protect their interests and act as their secretary, not the president of a country.
This is a legitimate political concern on the side of the US, but not necessarily a popular demand in Egypt. Egyptians, 80% or more muslims, hate the United States and the West. To manage this conflict, the islamic brotherhood stands as forerunners and as master of the game to inherit this complicated scene. They have been supported by the US and the West for a long time, for pure pragmatic reasons on both sides, and can control the street by expressing hate in public while receiving support and protecting the interests of the West privately.
Those who suffer will be the Copts without questions. The West has never cared about Copts, it is unlikely that the Islamic Brotherhood will stop at anything but a "total solution" (Third Reich approach to the Jews) for the Copts once they are in power. EL Baradei is a no one in terms of internal political experience. The two years he lived in Egypt he has not put forth an agenda on what his priorities are nor what is his political program. He has been pressed to do so and he has not gained the trust of the learnt egyptians, although he had a polished start. It is not enough to say that I want change, but the major question is: change to what? At times, the man flirted with the Islamic brotherhood to gain power and their divine blessings.
Compare the man to Tarek Heggi or Refaat El Said, and you will notice the difference.
One other thing: If it so happens and the revolution succeeds, the newly emerging leaders will be the islamic brotherhood who will claim the revolution for itself and any other leaders who have been on the ground or supported the revolution in a way or another. El Baradei is not one of those and he is not popular with the small secular movements like "Kefaya".
It is also wise for the church leaders not to take sides in this affair. Does not really matter. Personal evaluation of a candidate outside of sphere of moral integrity is not relevant.
Democracy is not an absolute value. It is a tool that could be used in either way: Build the society or destroy it. It has proven its efficiency in the West because it is a home grown product, in line with the values of the society and based on historical premises, but these premises are totally absent in the Arab World.
You are absolutely right that Copts outside of Egypt, by virtue of of belonging to a democratic state, exercise democracy and understand it. But democracy is not just a "mechanical" system that involves free elections and freedom to demonstrate. These are just the functional tools of expression for a democratic system. Successful democractic systems involves acceptance of the other and willingness to subject yourself to a majority approved laws even if it contradicts your interests. It involves most and foremost a love for the country. When such values are absent, and they are absent among the majority of muslims in Egypt, you have a body without the heart. You have the frame without the painting. If we have a "democracy" in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will not only be represented, they will sweep the elections. You will have your first 90% "democratic" results in favor of a group or candidate, and it will not even be rigged. In "democratic" Egypt, they will be bombed. It will be a worse experience than "democratic Iraq".
The US, and the West in general, have ZERO understanding of the dynamics of the egyptian street and of the psychology, social making and priorities of the egyptian nation. They repeat mistakes with ...diligence. Islamic Egypt rather. Omar Soliman, the newly appointed VP, is such a man.
The demonstrations, fueled by islamic brotherhood and the "analysts" on CNN, FOX and Jazeera, are either stupid or ideologically motivated to represent him with negativity.
The islamic brotherhood are very organized, strongly represented in army and in the police, extremely popular and have the weapons to engage in street fights that they are very skilled in.
They have a fundamental interest in blocking a peaceful transition of power to Omar Soliman. They seek a total state of anarchy in the country. They will emerge victors and on top. They will not allow the mistake of 1981 to happen again, when the unlikely assassination of Sadat created a political void that they did not properly exploit nor did they expect. They have been growing very slowly for almost a century now and they are ready to take over. They will not stand in the shadows again. True, if Mubarak is still the popular chief in command. It seems he is not anymore or that there is some division in the army ranks. The appointment of Omar Soliman as VP was understood to allow him control over the army again and over the police as well after the apparent treason by the minister of Interior, Habib El Adly.
The formation of the army units on the streets are suspecious. You do not control the street with tanks but with foot soldiers who engage in fights. Egyptian army are well equipped and they do not need Israeli weapons. It seems like a piece of El- Jezeera news, aimed at depicting Mubarak as a traitor. I think Israel's involvement in these affairs is minimal.
Hi Stavro,
I'm really interested to know how you feel about this. Do you feel that the average muslim Egyptians wants an Islamic State?
I did not get this impression. On the contrary, they want a secular state (as far as I can see), and from the interviews i've been listening to.
I'm not saying Copts should support ElBaradei.. not at all.. but let's put it this way. If he (or whoever is elected) is a friend of the USA, that makes them a friend of Israel, and that makes them NOT the Muslim Brotherhood.
U.S. Scrambles to Size Up ElBaradei
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/world/middleeast/01elbaradei.html?_r=1&emc=eta1
Two Cheers for the Brotherhood
http://www.fpif.org/articles/two_cheers_for_the_brotherhood
Dear All,
allow me to build on some of your arguments and offer a somewhat alternative political view. ..... to protect their interests and act as their secretary, not the president of a country.
This is a legitimate political concern on the side of the US, but not necessarily a popular demand in Egypt. Egyptians, 80% or more muslims, hate the United States and the West. To manage this conflict, the islamic brotherhood stands as forerunners and as master of the game to inherit this complicated scene. They have been supported by the US and the West for a long time, for pure pragmatic reasons on both sides, and can control the street by expressing hate in public while receiving support and protecting the interests of the West privately.
Those who suffer will be the Copts without questions. The West has never cared about Copts, it is unlikely that the Islamic Brotherhood will stop at anything but a "total solution" (Third Reich approach to the Jews) for the Copts once they are in power. EL Baradei is a no one in terms of internal political experience. The two years he lived in Egypt he has not put forth an agenda on what his priorities are nor what is his political program. He has been pressed to do so and he has not gained the trust of the learnt egyptians, although he had a polished start. It is not enough to say that I want change, but the major question is: change to what? At times, the man flirted with the Islamic brotherhood to gain power and their divine blessings.
Compare the man to Tarek Heggi or Refaat El Said, and you will notice the difference.
One other thing: If it so happens and the revolution succeeds, the newly emerging leaders will be the islamic brotherhood who will claim the revolution for itself and any other leaders who have been on the ground or supported the revolution in a way or another. El Baradei is not one of those and he is not popular with the small secular movements like "Kefaya".
It is also wise for the church leaders not to take sides in this affair. Does not really matter. Personal evaluation of a candidate outside of sphere of moral integrity is not relevant.
Democracy is not an absolute value. It is a tool that could be used in either way: Build the society or destroy it. It has proven its efficiency in the West because it is a home grown product, in line with the values of the society and based on historical premises, but these premises are totally absent in the Arab World.
You are absolutely right that Copts outside of Egypt, by virtue of of belonging to a democratic state, exercise democracy and understand it. But democracy is not just a "mechanical" system that involves free elections and freedom to demonstrate. These are just the functional tools of expression for a democratic system. Successful democractic systems involves acceptance of the other and willingness to subject yourself to a majority approved laws even if it contradicts your interests. It involves most and foremost a love for the country. When such values are absent, and they are absent among the majority of muslims in Egypt, you have a body without the heart. You have the frame without the painting. If we have a "democracy" in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will not only be represented, they will sweep the elections. You will have your first 90% "democratic" results in favor of a group or candidate, and it will not even be rigged. In "democratic" Egypt, they will be bombed. It will be a worse experience than "democratic Iraq".
The US, and the West in general, have ZERO understanding of the dynamics of the egyptian street and of the psychology, social making and priorities of the egyptian nation. They repeat mistakes with ...diligence. Islamic Egypt rather. Omar Soliman, the newly appointed VP, is such a man.
The demonstrations, fueled by islamic brotherhood and the "analysts" on CNN, FOX and Jazeera, are either stupid or ideologically motivated to represent him with negativity.
The islamic brotherhood are very organized, strongly represented in army and in the police, extremely popular and have the weapons to engage in street fights that they are very skilled in.
They have a fundamental interest in blocking a peaceful transition of power to Omar Soliman. They seek a total state of anarchy in the country. They will emerge victors and on top. They will not allow the mistake of 1981 to happen again, when the unlikely assassination of Sadat created a political void that they did not properly exploit nor did they expect. They have been growing very slowly for almost a century now and they are ready to take over. They will not stand in the shadows again. True, if Mubarak is still the popular chief in command. It seems he is not anymore or that there is some division in the army ranks. The appointment of Omar Soliman as VP was understood to allow him control over the army again and over the police as well after the apparent treason by the minister of Interior, Habib El Adly.
The formation of the army units on the streets are suspecious. You do not control the street with tanks but with foot soldiers who engage in fights. Egyptian army are well equipped and they do not need Israeli weapons. It seems like a piece of El- Jezeera news, aimed at depicting Mubarak as a traitor. I think Israel's involvement in these affairs is minimal.
I couldn't have given a better reply :)
it's something that happens as you get older...
;)